The Stakes of 2024: The Battle for Down-Ballot Victories
To Secure a Democratic Trifecta, 2024 Must Combine the Energy of 2008 with the Grassroots Strategy of 2018
With Kamala Harris as the nominee, the 2024 Presidential election is of historic importance. Like 2008, the energy for the top of the ticket is palpable. While in 2008, that energy translated to House and Senate wins, the political landscape is very different now. Even with those 2008 gains, political backlash, lack of outreach and a weak bench led to a string of legislative seat losses for the next 10 years. The first post-Trump midterm in 2018 brought us a Blue Wave due to a huge outpouring of grassroots organization, activism and support. For the Democratic trifecta, the 2024 election needs to combine the coalitions and energy of 2008 with the down ballot organization of 2018. These races are tight and the majorities will be decided by small numbers.
There are certain voter behaviors that we need to be aware of in races this close: split-ticket voting and top of ticket voting. Split-ticket voting means voting for candidates down-ballot that are a different party than your top of the ticket vote. In 2008 we saw an increase in split-ticket voting (as in 2016). This phenomenon used to be more common, but is now particularly noticeable in elections associated with change or a “movement”. People may have excitement or hope for the top of the ticket, but want to put guardrails in place. While this seems reasonable, in theory, the result in these polarized, highly partisan times is just gridlock.
The other behavior is top of the ticket voting. This is particularly popular with new voters and young voters, who are mobilized to vote by the energy of the Presidential campaign, but have no real interest or knowledge of the other races on the ballot. They don’t want to take the time to fill in the ballot and/or don’t feel they have the knowledge, so they leave the rest blank. This is one of the reasons why a top-down GOTV strategy is not as useful as GOTV for a down-ballot candidate.
The bottom line is that both House and Senate majorities depend on the outcome of several races that are currently neck and neck. Every vote is going to matter. Even when you see gains in polling for the Harris campaign, that doesn’t mean the down ballot races are shifting with her. Down-ballot candidates need funding and volunteers for GOTV efforts. A Harris win
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