Election 2024: Lessons From The Ground

Examining Canvass Results From A Bellwether District

When we experience a loss of this magnitude, we can count on the circular-firing squad to dominate Democratic media spaces. Hot takes filled with coulda - shoulda - woulda’s spew from influential social media accounts and opinion pages. Journalists proclaim broad, sweeping statements about campaign failures and elusive voter sentiments, mostly to remove the spotlight of responsibility from themselves and their role in this political narrative. The real answers, however, are available and reside with the grassroots volunteers who actually spoke to voters.

We focused heavily on MI-07 in the final weeks of the election. Elissa Slotkin was vacating this seat to run for MI-SEN and Curtis Hertel was the nominee to replace her. MI-07 is a difficult district and is considered a bellwether - meaning it acts as barometer for the turnout of the election writ-large. Focusing resources in a district like this creates a vertical strategy for voter turnout - get out the vote for Curtis Hertel improves vote numbers for Elissa Slotkin and Kamala Harris. Our volunteers contacted 129, 522 voters through postcards, door-knocks, phone banks and text banks. Roughly 1500 of these resulted in extended voter conversations, with about 70% indicating that they were not voting for Democrats. Now, it is normal for these responses to be skewed heavily toward negative results. Displeased or highly partisan voters are more likely to want to express themselves. Also, swing state voters can get frustrated with all the voter outreach targeting them and respond in a way that they believe will get them off a contact list. Nevertheless, these numbers and responses were concerning. For context, the actual election results were as follows: Hertel lost by 3.8%, Slotkin won by 0.3% and Harris lost by 1.4%. In another piece, I will discuss split-ticket voting and delve deeper into these results. Here, we are going to examine the types of canvass responses given for not voting for Democrats, because that is how understand what happened in this election.

The Economy

The hardship of the post-pandemic economy is by far the biggest category. Despite provable metrics of steady improvement, growth, avoidance of a recession, etc., there was little that could convince these voters that Democrats hadn’t “destroyed” the economy. In the end, this isn’t unusual. Voters blame the incumbent administration for what they are experiencing, even if that administration didn’t cause it and is actively implementing solutions. Economic solutions take time to show results on the ground. Trump will actually take control of an economy that was fixed by Biden, much like he took control of a 2016 economy that was re-built by Obama. Could the media have done a better job of educating the public on Biden’s success? Absolutely. But, it may not have made much difference. Globally, the 10 major countries all lost their incumbent leadership for the same reason. In our case, Trump’s previous term allowed a narrative to emerge that people were better off financially under Trump than Biden. Stripped of context, this was a true statement for most people. That is extremely difficult to overcome. Economic issues specific to Michigan were centered around the “Electric Vehicle Mandate”, which voters saw as harming their auto industry and reducing the jobs available to auto workers, despite Democratic support from the United Auto Workers union.

Immigration

Despite Republican’s not passing Immigration Reform and Biden’s demonstrable decrease in border crossings, voters see the Democrats as supporting “open borders.” This particular issue is heavily influenced by right-wing propaganda, as undocumented immigrants are not something MI-07 voters are experiencing in an appreciable manner (Michigan’s illegal immigrant population is roughly 1%). Nevertheless, “Democrats only care about illegal immigrants” or “Democrats want open borders” was the next largest complaint. The concept that Democrats wish to give social support in terms of federal and state aid to illegal immigrants is also a recurring theme.

Culture War/Identity Politics

“Socialist”, “Commie”, “Baby Killer”, “Pedo”, “Deviant”, “Evil”…this is the most obvious category to see the saturation of right wing propaganda. Yet, it’s also the category most likely to be the subject of the aforementioned circular firing squad. Examining this category is useful to see what Republican messaging landed with voters and develop better ways of responding to these attacks in the future. These are the most common Republican talking points that voters repeated:

• '“supporting abortion up until birth”

• “supporting genital mutilation of minors”

• “supporting men in women’s sports”

• “supporting men in women’s bathrooms”

These are, of course, framed in ways that distort the realities of the policies in question. These talking points, often built on misrepresentation or exaggerated cases, have gained traction because they play into larger concerns that political elites are pushing a progressive agenda that feels disconnected from the everyday lives of working-class voters.

To counter this, we need to sharpen our messaging. Progressive policies are designed to lift up the working class, reduce healthcare costs, strengthen the economy, and address systemic inequalities. When communicated effectively, these policies should inspire excitement about new opportunities and the promise of a more equitable society. If we can pivot the conversation to how progressive policies directly address issues like wage stagnation, healthcare access, and social mobility, we can neutralize attacks on divisive issues. By responding to concerns with empathy and clarity, while also focusing on the policies that directly improve people’s lives, we can restore trust and motivate voters to see the progressive agenda as an avenue for positive change.

Not Voting Democrat or Not Voting At All

All of the categories mentioned include subsets of voters who no longer consider themselves Democrats, have chosen not to vote for Democrats this cycle, or are not voting at all. While it is a common response that the party has “gone too far left”, there are also respondents who say the party is too conservative. The most consistent topic that emerged for this category was the Biden/Harris Administration’s response to Israel’s war in Gaza and a lack of support or protection for the Palestinian people. It is worth noting that Michigan has a particularly high Muslim population. Obviously, this is a sensitive and complicated topic, but it was surprising to me how many people were willing to risk electing Trump to punish or protest the current administration. As the violence continues, this tension in the party will also continue and will need to be handled with more nuance than it has been.

The number of voters who declared themselves no longer Democrats was somewhat concerning, as it was clear from their comments that they had succumbed to right-wing media influence - references to the deep state, immigrant fear-mongering, references to DEI programs, criticisms of COVID restrictions and vaccine mandates, etc. Other criticisms were more straightforward - Democrats “don’t care about the working class”, “only care about them in an election”, “take people for granted”, “don’t perform well.”

In addition to the protest votes, the most common sentiments expressed by non-voters included “both candidates are awful” and “it doesn’t matter anyway”.

The Takeaway

It is clear that the main factor in this election was the post-pandemic economy. It is doubtful that the Harris campaign could have done anything to change that outcome. It is, however, also clear that Democrats are losing the messaging game. We barraged the swing states with GOTV about the critical nature of this election, but it was too late. We are not amplifying our achievements enough. We are not simplifying our message enough. And we’re not taking that message to the people effectively enough.

We created Democrats Work For America precisely because we recognized that grassroots volunteers were the ones taking the pulse of the electorate and that we were positioned to develop strategic action based on that granular data. We need year round voter outreach and community involvement. The primary goal now has two prongs - fight against the Trump agenda and prepare to take back power in 2026.